Key takeaways:
- AI won’t differentiate retailers unless they’re using it to improve relevance and trust.
- Loyalty is becoming a pricing and value mechanism, not just a reward layer.
- The biggest gains will come from influencing customers during the shopping journey.
Busting 2025’s retail predictions.
In 2025, many predictions for the year ahead focused on AI adoption. And they were directionally right. Generative AI moved beyond pilot projects. Personalisation became more advanced. AI started influencing more day-to-day decisions.
What didn’t always follow was impact. Retailers that tied AI to specific commercial decisions moved forward. Others struggled to turn new capability into measurable revenue or margin improvement. That gap is only going to matter more in 2026.
These retail AI predictions for 2026 reflect what the team at HyperFinity is seeing across retail today. They’re shaped by industry research and real-world outcomes.
Prediction one: Agentic commerce drives long term gain.
Agentic commerce is one of the biggest incoming shifts. As it grows, AI will increasingly act on the behalf of customers. Instead of searching and browsing, shoppers will rely on AI agents to recommend products based on missions and preferences.
Agentic commerce will accelerate the need for explainable loyalty. When AI agents shop on the behalf of customers, they’ll favour retailers whose pricing and value logic is transparent and trustworthy.
In that world, product data really matters. Retailers enriching product data with detailed attributes, feedback and availability will be recommended by AI agents by default.
Prediction two: AI will turn loyalty into a growth engine.
Mass promotions are losing effectiveness. Retailers are seeing declining incremental uplift alongside growing margin pressure from blanket discounting.
AI-driven loyalty decisioning is accelerating the shift away from one-size-fits-all offers. Throughout 2026 and beyond, retailers will use AI to decide which customers need an offer or incentive, when, and at what value.
That’s what turns loyalty from a reward mechanism into a growth engine. One that’s focused on incrementality, not volume.
AI will also underpin the next phase of retail media and supplier funding. Better attribution and decisioning ensure supplier investment is directed towards the customers most likely to deliver incremental revenue, rather than wasted reach.
Prediction three: Personalisation will move into the shopping journey.
Until now, most personalisation has happened either before or after a shop. By 2026, more value will be created during the shopping journey itself.
Shop-and-scan, apps, and in-store digital experiences allow AI to influence decisions in real time. This means customers choosing a product can receive relevant recommendations at the moment they matter most.
This isn’t about novelty. It’s about reducing friction and helping customers make better decisions while they’re still shopping. And it also ties in with supplier funding – a win for all parties.
Prediction four: Explainable loyalty will become a real differentiator.
As AI takes a bigger role in pricing, offers and rewards, customers will expect clarity. They won’t just ask what value they’re getting. They’ll ask why they’re getting it.
Retailers that clearly explain how AI influences loyalty outcomes will build more trust than those that optimise silently. Transparency won’t just be a compliance exercise. It’ll be a competitive advantage.
Explainable loyalty doesn’t mean exposing algorithms. It means helping customers understand the logic behind offers, prices and recognition. When customers trust the system, they engage more deeply and stay loyal for longer.
Prediction five: Humanity will still be the differentiator.
AI will accelerate insight, automate analysis and surface patterns faster than any human team ever could.
But AI won’t decide what matters most.
Human judgement will still define which decisions to act on, where to intervene and how to balance revenue, margin and customer trust. Relevance, not automation alone, is what drives retail performance.
What these retail AI predictions for 2026 mean for retailers.
Retail in 2026 won’t be about doing more. It’ll be about doing less, better, with the support of AI.
Less blanket value. More personalisation and relevance.
Less opacity. More trust.
AI won’t be the competitive edge. Everyone will have access to it. The real advantage will come from asking better questions, applying human judgement and focusing on decisions that move the needle. HyperFinity helps retailers turn customer data into actionable intelligence. Want to explore what’s possible? Get in touch via our contact form or by emailing contact@hyperfinity.ai.
Sources and further reading.
National Retail Federation (NRF) – Retail AI trends and industry insights
Retail TouchPoints – Generative AI and retail predictions for 2025
McKinsey – Scaling generative AI and AI value creation in retail
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) – Retail transformation, AI, and value creation
Amperity – 2025 State of AI in Retail
Arthur D. Little – Retail and AI outlook
Retail Technology Review – AI personalisation adoption research
